Friday, June 24, 2011

Lessons from Japan quake

The 9 magnitude Tohoku-Oki earthquake that struck Japan on March 11, 2011, and triggered the deadly tsunami, was more powerful than expected. The magnitude of quakes in this region has been around 7-8 in recent centuries. Papers published recently in Nature and Science journals reveal why the quake off the Sendai coast turned out to be deadly. Though the fault north of Tokyo was assumed to be fairly simple and uniform in nature, the March 11 event showed how complicated it was. In the Japan Trench, the subduction (diving) of the Pacific Plate under the Okhotsk Plate occurs at an average rate of 8-8.5 cm a year. The subduction, it now turns out, has not been smooth. The plates had apparently got stuck (locked) at certain portions along the fault. Since the plates are converging, any locking of the plate interface produces an enormous build up of strain. Seismologists had presumed that the relatively soft material of the seafloor near the Japan Trench could not support a large accumulation of strain. Hence any failure of the fault and the resulting strain release was expected to produce only large earthquakes, not a 9 magnitude killer quake. However, enormous energy was released on March 11 owing to the sudden slip of a compact area (400 km in length and 200 km in width) of the plate interface. The epicentre had moved seaward by as much as 24 metres and lifted upward by about 3 metres.

Only two of the five ruptured segments had experienced an extreme slip. But this increases the possibility of very high magnitude quakes striking the southern portion of the fault due to stress transfer. The consequences could be severe if this portion of the fault has also been locked. If predicting quakes with a high degree of confidence is not possible in the case of land-based faults, scientists are far worse off when it comes to subduction zones located in the deep ocean. The lack of sea-based instruments to measure strain build-up is a huge limitation. Though Japan had a handful of sonar transponders located on the seafloor near the Trench, measurements were not taken frequently, notes a paper published recently in Nature (“Hidden depths,” by Andrew V. Newman). Vital information collected at regular intervals before the deadly quake could have minimised the loss of human life. Unfortunately, this was not done as collecting data from the sonar transponders is prohibitively expensive. The March 11 event should prompt the scientific community and governments to find cheaper and more efficient ways of obtaining critical information.


Source: the Hindu, Editorial Page

Bangladesh: restoring secular Constitution--25th June 2011

By Haroon Habib

Two Supreme Court verdicts declaring the controversial fifth and eighths amendments void have brightened the scope for a meaningful constitutional change.

For the first time after 1975, Bangladesh has got the opportunity to correct calculated distortions to its original Constitution framed in 1972, following independence of former East Pakistan. The ruling grand alliance, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, holds a three-fourths majority in Parliament, more than the two-thirds required for bringing changes to the Constitution.

Understandably, the huge majority of the pro-liberation ruling coalition has become an irritant to the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the Jamaat-e-Islami and their fundamentalist allies, which think that they may be weakened if the distortions are corrected and secular principles restored.

The two recent landmark verdicts delivered by the Supreme Court declaring the controversial fifth and eighth amendments — brought in by military rulers General Ziaur Rahman and General Hussain Muhammad Ershad — unconstitutional and void have brightened the scope for a meaningful change. Declaring military rule unconstitutional, the court restored the four basic principles — democracy, nationalism, socialism and secularism — which were the pillars of the state.

The Awami League-led alliance, bound by its promise to restore the lost state principles, formed a special parliamentary committee for recommending suitable amendments. The committee, after a year-long exercise, placed its recommendations before Parliament. These recommendations will be included in the upcoming Constitution bill, to be endorsed by Parliament.

Resistance to the changes in all conceivable ways, to deflect the ruling alliance from its avowed path, was expected from the political beneficiaries of the fifth and eighth amendments — the fundamentalists and pro-Islamists. Interestingly, the Sheik Hasina-led coalition has started facing opposition from among its own supporters who fear that the government, due to its “misconceived political readings,” may fall into a trap.

These sections, the vanguard of the nation's secular ethos — freedom fighters, cultural and women activists, leading professional groups in the greater civil society spectrum — allege that while the government proposes to restore ‘secularism,' it also intends retaining some provisions which are in sharp contradiction to secularism and the spirit of the Liberation War.

Indiscriminate amendments were made to the Constitution by the first military regime led by Gen Ziaur Rahman, founder of the BNP, following the assassination of Bangladesh's founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975 . The amendments not only changed the fundamental principles of the state but also destroyed its secular character, allowed politics based on religion, and provided political rights to the anti-Liberation War forces, even the war criminals. Besides, the secular ‘Bengali nationalism,' on the basis of which the Bangladesh war was fought, was replaced with ‘Bangladeshi nationalism'.

Grabbing state power in 1982, General Ershad made Islam the state religion. This gross deviation from the original Constitution radically altered the political landscape, helping in the rise of religion-based political parties, which had been banned on charges of war crimes.

“These changes were fundamental in nature and changed the very basis of our war for liberation and also defaced the Constitution altogether,” the Supreme Court observed, adding they transformed a secular Bangladesh into a “theocratic state” and “betrayed one of the dominant causes for the war of liberation of Bangladesh.”

The criticism from within the government's proven support groups became louder as the parliamentary committee recommended retention of Islam as the state religion, saying at the same time that the state would be neutral on the question of religion. On June 20, the Cabinet, chaired by Sheikh Hasina, approved a Constitution bill seeking the retention of “Islam as the state religion” and the phrase ‘Bismillahir Rahmanir Rahim.' Two Ministers opposed the provisions as they sharply contradict the principle of secularism. However, the Prime Minister told her colleagues that she favoured the retention of the two provisions, taking into account the “ground reality.”

The sympathisers-turned critics of the ruling coalition see this as an obvious contradiction. They blame the policymakers for striking an “unethical compromise” with religion-based politics, in the vain hope of pleasing the pro-Islamic electorate.

However, they have welcomed some fundamental changes the ruling alliance proposes to make to the Constitution. For the first time, Bangladesh is set to give constitutional recognition to Mujibur Rahman, and incorporate the historical facts of the “Declaration of Independence” on March 26, 1971 by Mujib, his March 7, 1971 public speech that led to the armed struggle, and the “Proclamation of Independence” by the elected representatives who formed the provisional government to lead the war in April 1971.

The pro-Islamists must be happy with the government's decision to retain the non-secular provisions. But whether they will vote for the party which, in their words, ‘dismantled Pakistan,' remains uncertain.

The argument in favour of retaining the controversial principles is that the BNP and the Jamaat, backed by splinter Islamist groups, may mislead the electorate.

Nonetheless, there are apprehensions among the liberals that if the non-secular provisions, including the right to religion-based politics, are not removed, fanatics would become more desperate to turn Bangladesh into a state similar to Pakistan. This compromise may alienate a vast majority of young generation voters who, under a new ethical awakening, voted overwhelmingly for the Awami League in the crucial 2008 elections.

The Supreme Court has paved the way for preventing a military takeover in future and restored the secular spirit of the original Constitution. Islam, however, shall remain state religion as it was not covered by the judgment. The court vehemently denounced military rule and the suspension of the Constitution by a martial law proclamation.

The original Constitution, adopted on December, 16, 1972, endorsed nationalism, socialism, democracy and secularism as basic state principles. Gen Rahman proclaimed himself President in 1977 and began the process of Islamisation by removing all secular principles. Apart from the 11th and 12th amendments, all amendments were made unilaterally. Those unilateral amendments produced bitterness, animosity and hostility.

‘Bismillah,' an Arabic word, is not the issue; the issue is its political use. The military ruler of Bangladesh adopted the campaign rhetoric of Hitler, who stoked racial and ethnic sentiments in the 1930s Germany, and of the Catholic Church of Austria, which used religious sentiments to persecute the Jews. There is also a lesson to be learnt: religion, when politically manipulated, can bring about massive human destruction. The Bangladesh genocide and mass rape in 1971 by ‘Islamist' Pakistan army and its collaborators are a gleaming example.

There are a few important amendments suggested by the special committee, which includes a new Article. It says any unconstitutional seizure of state power should be considered treason and persons involved tried on the charge of sedition. The committee has also recommended a new Article to ensure preservation of the heritage of the ethnic minorities and their development.

Two partners of the ruling coalition and members of the special committee gave a note of dissent on the recommendations for retaining the non-secular provisions. They, however, did not oppose the recommendation on the caretaker government, already declared unconstitutional by the court, as they thought an alternative could be found through talks, if the BNP came to the negotiating table. Despite repeated invitations, however, Khaleda Zia did not send her representatives to the committee.

According to the recommendations, war criminals, now undergoing trial, cannot contest the national election. Besides, the committee recommended women's empowerment, and protection of bio-diversity and environment.

While the pro-Islamists have remained mum on the government's declaration of retaining the ‘pro-religious' Articles, pro-secular organisations have started expressing grave concern. They have demanded the constitutional recognition of all races and ethnic communities.

The secularists have also pointed out that the independence of Bangladesh means independence from the dreadful practices of categorisation by the professed faiths. They hope that Parliament will do its part to preserve the Constitution that represents the nation's heroic struggle for independence from a false statehood on the basis of religion.

(The writer is a senior Bangladesh journalist, political analyst and author. Email: hh1971@gmail.com.)


Source: The Hindu, The Editorial Page

Lokpal & Jan Lokpal --- 25th day of June

A comparison between the drafts of the Jan Lokpal bill of civil society members and the Lokpal bill of government representatives (June 23) exposes the sharp divide between the two sides. While civil society proposes progressive moves, the government wants to preserve the status quo of the superstructure of corruption. The civil society group has taken care to spread the anti-corruption net, while the government confines itself to the existing modes of anti-corruption machinery. It has omitted crucial aspects such as whistle-blower protection, immunity to the bribe-giver and other powers that can enable the Lokpal to render the proposed law more effective.

Rajender Samala,

Hyderabad

The tabulated details of the various issues involved in the drafting of the Lokpal bill and the differences between the government and civil society members have helped many readers like me gain a precise idea about the grave nature and magnitude of the conflicting views. As a decades-old reader, I would like to thank The Hindu for publishing them.

K.D. Viswanaathan,

Coimbatore

To root out corruption, we need a Lokpal in any form, even if it is only a baby step forward. The Lokpal bill cannot guarantee the elimination of corruption but it will certainly make a difference in the long run. Instead of insisting on including (or excluding) every constitutional authority within the ambit of Lokpal, the two sides should shed their differences and concentrate on passing the bill.

Krishnaprasad Balan,

Chennai

Both sides have valid points but it is also important to look at a practical solution. Bringing all government employees, from top to bottom, under the Lokpal's purview would render the government superfluous. In other words, civil society representatives want to move away from a parliamentary form of government to a Jan Lokpal form of government. Do they believe that the Lokpal can never be corrupted? Although hope sustains life, taking full control of administration from the government and handing it over to the Lokpal hardly seems a practical way of ending corruption.

Puneet Gupta,

Patiala

We already have a criminal justice system in place to deal with the corrupt under the Prevention of Corruption Act. Why does the UPA government want to do the same through the Lokpal, without giving the institution any special powers to deal with corruption? The draft Lokpal bill looks like a virtual repetition of PoCA, aimed at reinforcing that it is the government that is in control.

S. Jeyavel Aravindan,

Rajapalayam

Anna Hazare's proposed hunger strike from August 16 may not get much public response as it did the last time. A hunger strike by him or his team is not the solution to the problem. Team Anna should go to the people and make them aware of the need for a Jan Lokpal bill to eradicate corruption. We have already seen what happened to Baba Ramdev's recent fast. Babas should be kept away from the anti-corruption crusade.

Why is the government adamant on keeping the Prime Minister, the higher judiciary and the MPs away from the purview of the proposed Lokpal? Nobody should be above the law.

V.B. Rajagopal,

Thiruvananthapuram

The result of the deliberations on the Lokpal bill was a foregone conclusion. But the exercise, at least, served to highlight the apathetic and intransigent mindset of the UPA government in safeguarding politicians and bureaucrats, come what may. Let us hope that Mr. Hazare's next move will bring forth a solution.

V. Balasubramanian,

Coimbatore

Political parties, activists and the media are all crying shrill over the Lokpal bill. Will a Lokpal change the life of an ordinary person? Even in the unlikely event of a strong Lokpal bill being passed, it will hardly be implemented in letter and in spirit. It will be one more ineffective institution. Also, those on the Lokpal bench are also human. There will be need for further laws to oversee and keep them in check.

There are enough laws on the statute book that are not implemented. Let us ignore all this talk about the Lokpal and look at implementing the criminal and civil laws that already exist. There are enough checks and balances to counter bribery and nepotism.

K. Venkataraman,

Mumbai

We now know that the draft Prevention of Communal and Targeted Violence (Access to Justice and Reparations) bill, meant to protect the minorities from targeted and organised violence, has been released for comment and feedback. We also know that the Lokpal bill is in the making. A law may soon be enacted for the safety of journalists.

If, in order to find a solution to all problems, we start enacting laws to prosecute the powerful and protect the weak, wouldn't we be treating only the symptoms, and not the disease? How long can the nation survive in a bandaged democracy? Should we not find solutions which will lead society to real democracy?

Sarita Kanade,

Pune



Source: The Hindu